Oct. 25, 2024 | This Week in Government: Michigan Strategic Fund Board Approves 450 New Residential Units

Photo credit: David Rodriguez Munoz, Detroit Free Press

The Michigan Strategic Fund Board approved investments in two forthcoming projects in Detroit and Wyandotte on Tuesday, which state officials said will lead to the construction of at least 450 new housing units in currently underutilized buildings.

Gov. Gretchen Whitmer said the $10 million headed for rehabbing the Fisher Body Plant in Detroit and $1.8 million to refurbish the old Wyandotte City Hall are an example of “betting on Michigan and building up our cities.”

“Today’s investments will convert the iconic Fisher Body Plant in Detroit and the former Wyandotte City Hall into hundreds of new units of quality, affordable housing and commercial space,” Whitmer said in a statement. “Our comprehensive economic development strategy is all about making Michigan the best place to live, work, and invest. Together, we are converting old, underutilized property into productive space and making our neighborhoods more attractive for families and small business owners too.”

The Fisher Building project, which the board voted to put $10 million toward, is set to include 433 market-rate and affordable housing units – 63 units will be reserved for those with 50-80% of the Area Median Income – over 26,700 square feet of retail space and 17,685 square feet of co-working space.

“Today’s support from the MSF Board reflects our commitment to executing the ‘Make It In Michigan’ economic development strategy focused on people, places, and projects, true to our holistic philosophy of economic growth that delivers more chances for prosperity on both peninsulas,” Michigan Economic Development Corporation Chief Executive Officer Quentin Messer Jr. said in a statement. “I’m humbled and motivated knowing that the tangible benefits our investments provide a job, a home, a dream realized, a legacy, or all the above to our friends and neighbors.”

Sen. Stephanie Chang (D-Detroit) said she was “thrilled” to hear of the MEDC’s investment in affordable housing units in the Fisher Building development.

“In recent years, we have seen housing prices continue to rise in the city of Detroit and Michigan,” Chang said in a statement. “I am excited to see that this project will provide much needed affordable housing in our state while also making use of the current vacant plant and addressing blight.”

The former Wyandotte City Hall, which was vacated by the local government when it moved into new facilities in 2013, will receive a $1.8 million loan from the MEDC, a roughly $250,000 increase from an initial loan which was supported by the MSF board in 2023. The project will now include 30 residential units and first floor retail or restaurant space.

Legislation addressing the admissibility of video recorded statements in pretrial proceedings, new measures to protect the personal information of judges, and a bill to let Court of Appeals judges swear in new court officers was reported Wednesday by the Senate Civil Rights, Judiciary, and Public Safety Committee.

Sponsored by Sen. John Cherry (D-Flint), SB 813 would allow consideration of videorecorded statements in pretrial proceedings. The bill was reported with an S-2 substitute.

Cherry said the change makes several modifications to the bill, including a section that says a transcript would be provided by right to a defendant’s attorney or the defendant if they are representing themselves, and a provision to make sure that, if it is used as evidence, it would be done so consistently with the state’s rules of evidence.

Cherry added that he had conversations with criminal defense attorneys, who continue to have concerns, but said they are on a path to addressing them.

Sen. Jim Runestad (R-White Lake) offered three amendments, each of which was voted down prior to senators adopting the S-2 substitute and reporting the bill.

Sponsored by Rep. Kelly Breen (D-Novi), HB 5204 would allow Court of Appeals judges to swear in new state bar admissions, jurisdiction currently only extended to circuit court judges, and members of the Michigan Supreme Court.

Breen said existing statute skips Court of Appeals judges in its list of jurisdictions to swear in judicial officers, calling it an unintentional oversight as the statute went into effect before the Court of Appeals existed in Michigan.

“So, we’re just trying to clean up the statute,” Breen said. “This will just help us with our bureaucracy, minimize that, and make things a little more efficient.”

In support of the bill were Monica Martinez, who was representing the Michigan Judges Association, and Nathan Triplett of the State Bar of Michigan.

HB 5204 was reported without amendment or a substitute version adopted.

Breen also sponsored HB 5274, known as the Judicial Protection Act, which would shield the personal identifying information of judges and their family members to prevent intimidation or physical harm from disgruntled defendants or members of the public.

The bill was introduced earlier this year in the House, passed 87-21 in June and was discussed by Senate Civil Rights, Judiciary, and Public Safety twice in October (See Gongwer Michigan Report, Oct. 17, 2024).

The committee adopted an S-3 substitute to HB 5274 on Wednesday.

Triplett, the director of public policy and governmental relations with the State Bar of Michigan, summarized the changes in the substitute, which added new exceptions related to fraud detection and identity verification, and the rewording of a provision on incidental information access.

He said nothing in the latter provision would prevent or prohibit a public body from providing access to records that contain personal identifying information of a judge or their immediate family – but only when that access is incidental to approved activities detailed in Section 5 of the bill.

As of Wednesday, less than two weeks before Election Day, more than 1.2 million voters have returned absentee ballots and more than 7,000 have voted in person at early voting centers in the communities offering it early.

Data from the Department of State shows 1,242,248 absentee ballots have been returned of the 2,288,684 requested.

Detroit, East Lansing, and Canton Township are offering early voting ahead of the statewide launch on Oct. 26, when all communities will be required to offer in-person early voting. In those communities, 7,054 voters have already voted.

Campaign leaders are making final decisions on where to invest the last batches of campaign cash available into the race for House control, and those decisions have produced some movement in our latest list of the top 10 seats most likely to flip.

Both Democrats and Republicans have reallocated resources as Democrats seek to hold onto their 56-54 majority, and Republicans scrounge to find two seats they can flip red to seize control.

Democrats have outspent Republicans on television, radio and digital/streaming, $17.3 million to $3.85 million between the August primary and Tuesday in 13 key districts, according to data from the AdImpact tracking firm. That’s an astounding gap though $9.6 million of the gap stems from Democrats pouring $10.6 million so far into seven House seats in the Detroit media market to $1 million for the Republicans. Democrats have paid for expensive Detroit broadcast advertising. Republicans have not.

In six seats elsewhere in the state, the Democratic advertising advantage at this point is $6.7 million to $2.8 million, still lopsided, but more manageable for the Republicans.

That’s especially so when looking at gross ratings points instead of dollars. Much of the Democratic dollar advantage is from Michigan Democratic Party spending, but those dollars don’t go as far as funds from candidates and the caucus PACs. In these six races, Democratic ad spending has yielded 35,164 gross ratings points so far to 22,846 for the Republicans, meaning that while total Democratic spending is 239% greater than total Republican spending, the actual ad advantage is 54 percent more.

Of course, television is far from everything. There’s mail and the bread and butter of a state House campaign: door-to-door work.

This list might look different if ranking only based on environment or only based on candidate quality.

If only environment mattered, the order might be 58, 27, 55, 54, 61, 44, 109, 31, 46, and 103.

If we ranked based on the political strengths of the challenger, the order might be 83, 46, 109, 44, 58, 54, 103, 27, 31, 55.

But in the end, it’s a mixture of both. With that, here’s our latest list:

(Unchanged) Churches, Linting to the Wire

There is a fundamental reason why we have ranked the race between Rep. Jaime Churches(D-Wyandotte) and Republican Rylee Linting of Wyandotte in the 27th District number one for 10 weeks: Churches has the district where former President Donald Trump did the best of any seat held by a first-term Democrat.

That hasn’t changed, and thus, this race remains at the top.

Trump won this seat by four points in 2020 and eight points in 2016. When Churches won her first term in 2022, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer carried the district by 10.5 points. There could be 10,000 people voting in two weeks who didn’t vote in 2022 and are seeing Churches’ name on a ballot for the first time.

Downriver voters, however, have a long history of splitting their tickets, and Republicans quietly acknowledge Churches has run a good incumbency program. Linting is a political newcomer, and Downriver voters tend to like their incumbents, provided they know them. Ideology is less important.

Democrats have hammered Linting on abortion.

(Unchanged) Is it Shannon’s or Robinson’s Neighborhood?

There’s a fundamental reason why this race for the 58th District has sat at No. 2 on our list for 10 weeks. Shannon has the district where Trump did the best of any seat held by a Democrat. We continue to rank Shannon a notch below Churches because unlike Churches, he’s won election three times, including in 2020 when Trump won his (slightly different shaped) district. Trump carried this seat by 6 points in 2020 and 10 points in 2016. The assessment of Republican challenger Ron Robinsonof Utica depends on who’s doing the talking. Some say he has hit the doors hard and positioned himself well. Other sources say it’s not clear that’s the case.

It’s worth noting in the “who’s in bigger trouble, Churches or Shannon” debate that Democratic ads (both spent and future reservations) total $3.1 million for Shannon and $1.7 million for Churches. That Democrats have spent $2 million so far and have another million queued up speaks volumes about their concern level.

But Shannon has overcome top of the ticket drag before.

(Unchanged) Dem Confidence High on Mahoney Over Schmaltz

Based on the confidence emanating from Democratic ranks, if they were drawing up this list, they might make Rep. Kathy Schmaltz No. 1. Jackson Mayor Daniel Mahoney was one of the stronger recruits of the cycle for either party.

The 46th District is about as close to a 50/50 district as it gets. In 2020, Trump carried it by 0.26 percentage point while U.S. Sen. Gary Peters (D-Bloomfield Township) won the seat by 2 points. In 2016, Trump had a 1.8-point victory margin. So, this should be a level playing field where candidate quality helps.

Republicans have battered Mahoney with a series of ads on his record and other issues.

There are two big unknowns owing to Democrats abandoning this seat in 2022 and Schmaltz getting a free pass: how exactly does this district perform under the 2021 map that paired Democratic Jackson and Chelsea with Republican suburbs and rural areas in between, and how good a candidate is Schmaltz. Had this been the matchup in 2022, with Whitmer winning the district by 11 points, it’s easy to see how Mahoney would have won.

Democrats have hit Schmaltz hard on abortion and now with a new ad about her votes against legislation expanding the statute of limitations in sexual assault cases.

Republicans have scoffed at the Democratic TV spending in the Detroit market, but another point in Mahoney’s favor is the yawning chasm in TV spending in this district in the much cheaper Lansing market – $1.8 million by or on behalf of Mahoney to $633,000 by or on behalf of Schmaltz with another $800,000 reserved for Mahoney still to air to $250,000 for Schmaltz. This is one of the seats though where the Democratic Party ad dollars don’t go as far. Mahoney still has a big advantage in gross ratings points over Schmaltz but it’s not three-to-one, more like 58 percent.

(Up From 6) Republicans Putting More Pressure on Haadsma

The 44th District has rocketed up the list from No. 9 in September. We’ve elevated it for two reasons: signs of continued Republican ascendancy in Calhoun County and massive spending increases on advertising by both parties.

Haadsma, as a third-term incumbent seeking a fourth term, is facing a district that continues to shift toward the Republicans. Trump won it twice but by 1.34 points in 2016 and just 1.14 points in 2020. It’s notable that – unlike the Churches and Shannon districts – Trump didn’t have much reduction in his victory margin here between 2016 and 2020. That means a 2016-style environment where Trump wins or comes close to winning statewide may not make the difference it would with Churches and Shannon.

However, there is concern in Democratic circles that Trump may perform better here this time. If that’s the case, it puts more pressure on Haadsma and opens the door for Republican Steven Frisbie of Battle Creek. It’s also worth noting that Haadsma is facing his toughest challenger in a while. He beat the same Republican in 2018, 2020 and 2022, and that candidate was not well regarded.

Spending by or on behalf of Haadsma on advertising is $1.7 million since the primary to $544,000 for Frisbie. Another $800,000 is reserved for Haadsma compared to $300,000 for Frisbie, who currently at $882,564 spent or reserved in advertising leads all Republicans, even Schmaltz. That says a lot about the opportunity Republicans sense.

(Down From 4) Hill, Bohnak Going the Distance

This race in the 109th District between Rep. Jenn Hill(D-Marquette) and former television meteorologist Karl Bohnakof Negaunee remains competitive as ever. We’re only moving it down because of the combination of spending and favorable environment for the Republicans in the Haadsma district.

From an environment standpoint, this is a 50/50 district. It’s also one where Republicans have fared the same as Charlie Brown when Lucy holds and then yanks away the football. Marquette is a Democratic city and while the outlying areas have become Republican, this isn’t like other U.P. districts where it didn’t take much for them to flip solidly Republican.

This seat sits where it sits because Bohnak was a great recruit, someone whose years on television forecasting the weather put him in residents’ homes every day. Republicans have never fielded a strong candidate here, so this is a big change. Advertising spending is relatively even here, $1.1 million spent or reserved for Hill and $864,617 for Bohnak. The Republicans will take it.

Should Hill fall, there will be a lot of questions as to why Democrats spent $1.6 million trying to take out Rep. Jamie Thompson (R-Brownstown) in a Trump +7 district.

(Up From 7) Iffy Environment Moves Miller Up

Exiting the top five with Rep. Reggie Miller(D-Van Buren Township) in the 31st House District, the likelihood of seats flipping declines. But this is a presidential year with Trump on the ballot in an expected close race and we could see more voters come out of the woodwork.

So, Miller, despite not seeing as much spending from Republicans as some other seats, moves up to number six. This is because it is a (sort of) Downriver seat where there is some uncertainty on what voters show up. Still, President Joe Biden and 2016 candidate Hillary Clinton both narrowly won this seat in 2016 and 2020, respectively.

This race, as we’ve mentioned before, is also a rematch of the 2022 contest against Dale Biniecki of Raisinville Township.

There was considerable debate on if the 31st should be ranked above or below the 103rd. We decided the environment is more favorable for a potential upset in the 31st for the reasons described above compared to the 103rd, even with the considerable spending Republicans are doing in the northern Michigan seat.

Democrats have outspent Republicans here, $1.3 million to $179,000, so far with another $500,000 queued up, so the Democrats don’t appear to be taking this one for granted.

(Down From 5) Coffie Still in the Mix

What we have said about this seat from the beginning remains true: the top-of-the-ticket environment in the 103rd House District does not seem to support the unseating of Rep. Betsy Coffia(D-Traverse City).

But, it is still a seat Coffia won by a razor thin margin in 2022 and Republicans are spending hard for Lisa Trombley of Traverse City. Despite the trending in the Democrats’ direction, it is still a contender.

Trombley’s ads and mail here are interesting: she is encouraging Republicans to vote early. After attacking Coffia about holding out on voting for a financial disclosure requirement, she moved on to a television ad where she calls Coffia “nice” but says Democratic policies are bad for the state.

Coffia is hitting hard on the environment and abortion. She also uncorked a bruising ad against Trombley using her words against her. Trombley flubbed at a forum and said “northern Virginia” instead of “northern Michigan.” Trombley is a Michigan native but worked near Washington, D.C., for decades before retiring to Traverse City. That could be a damaging mistake in the 103rd, where residents are no strangers to those moving into the area from out of state.

Republicans in raw dollars have spent the second most on advertising here of the 13 competitive districts, though still have been outspent, $697,000 to $519,000.

Should Republicans come up short of majority and lose here, there will be a lot of questions about why they dug in so deep. Yes, Coffia had the closest win of any state House race in 2022 but the trend in this district is clearly blue.

(Up From 10) Dems Dramatically Up the Ante Against Steele

Democrats must see something in the 54th House District where they are trying to unseat Rep. Donni Steele(R-Orion) with Democrat Shadia Martini of Bloomfield Hills. Outside groups have also gotten involved in spending for Martini.

In a major move, the Michigan Democratic Party pulled $1.3 million in advertising reservations from the Thompson district and reallocated it to help Martini. Two new ads launched attacking Steele this week (see related story). This doubled the money spent or reserved to help Martini in the district to $2.7 million. Republicans have just $219,000 spent or reserved for Steele.

The environment in Oakland County is likely a positive for Democrats. It is a rematch, and Steele is now an incumbent, a benefit for Steele. But Democrats are hoping to get some more magic out of Oakland, a one-time Republican stronghold that has moved fiercely to the left since 2016.

Vice President Kamala Harris will need to run up the score here to provide some lift for Martini. A two-point win in the district, like Biden’s 2020 margin, won’t cut it.

(Down From 8) Steady as She Goes In 61st

The story for Rep. Denise Mentzer of Mount Clemens hasn’t changed much since earlier this month. Republicans aren’t spending heavily – or even lightly, for that matter – for Robert Wojtowicz of Mount Clemens. Democrats and Republicans appear to agree she matches the district well and is doing the right things. It’s a seat in Macomb and in a Trump year, it stays on the board. But spending is incredibly lopsided for the Democrats and it’s hard to see anything shake loose.

Democrats continue to pour money into advertising here, perhaps mindful that this was a Trump +5 district in 2016 (though it was a much smaller Trump margin in 2020).

Democrats have spent more on advertising here than any other district though if the current reservations hold, Shannon will top Mentzer.

(Down From 9) GOP Remains Hopeful With Brann

Although Republicans remain optimistic about former Rep. Tommy Brann of Wyoming against Rep. John Fitzgerald (D-Wyoming) in the 83rd House District, the environment here favors Democrats. Harris is expected to roll in the district, which was Biden +10 in 2020.

It’s very hard to imagine Brann overcoming that kind of tide.

However, Brann never fit the mold of a traditional Republican and his status as a popular former business owner in the district keeps him relevant. He is also working.

Many of the Kent County seats have dropped off the radar and are not competitive heading into November. Democrats admit this one is close. While Fitzgerald is working with a positive environment, Republican spending and enthusiasm won’t let him completely run away with it.

This one may come down to straight ticket voting. Brann needs voters to review individual races to have a chance.

Spending here is relatively light for a Grand Rapids area seat, $612,000 in advertising by or on behalf of Fitzgerald since the primary compared to $270,000 for Brann.

On the Watchlist- Nothing Has Changed

There are three key seats we have to keep an eye on but for a variety of reasons, including spending, candidate quality and environment, they’re not on the list to flip.

The 55th District, another Oakland County seat, has Rep. Mark Tisdel (R-Rochester Hills) seeking a third term against Democrat Trevis Harrold of Rochester Hills. Democrats have spent here but not as much as in the Steele seat and there are some doubts about Harrold.

Democrats continue to advertise here but clearly made a choice to dump $1.3 million more into taking down Steele, not Tisdel.

Republicans have responded minimally and are confident with Tisdel. Still, the area will continue to trend Democratic and Trump isn’t going to do Tisdel any favors here. Tisdel has twice won despite Democrats winning at the top of the ticket in his district.

In the 28th District, Democrats put massive resources behind Janise Robinson of Brownstown Township but it looks like the white flag has been raised. The Michigan Democratic Party pulled $1.3 million in advertising reservations for Robinson. Rep. Jamie Thompson (R-Brownstown Township), now a first-term incumbent, is doing what she needs to do. As has been the case throughout the cycle, Trump is expected to do well here – he won the seat by 7 points in 2020 — making it a tough pickup for the Democrats.

In 76th House District, currently held by Rep. Angela Witwer (D-Delta Township), Republicans put some money behind Andy Shaver of Chester at the end of September. Democrats responded massively with almost a million in television advertising. You get the feeling that’s what Republicans wanted. They’ve since slowed their spending here. This is a 50/50 district, so it remains on the watchlist but we’re unlikely to see movement here unless something changes.

All but one of the state’s labor market regions experienced a decline in unemployment during September, the Department of Technology, Management, and Budget reported Thursday.

Sixteen of the state’s 17 labor markets saw declines in September, with the Detroit-Warren-Dearborn metropolitan statistical area being the sole region to see an increase over August.

“Michigan labor market areas demonstrated expected unemployment rate reductions during September,” Wayne Rourke, labor market information director for the Michigan Center for Data and Analytics, said in a statement. “Regional payroll job gains largely reflected seasonal hiring in education-related industries due to the start of the academic year.”

Government sector jobs saw the largest increase in September, with 46,000 jobs. It was stated most of these were school and university jobs.

The median decline in unemployment during September was 0.6 percentage points in the regional labor markets.

The Monroe metropolitan statistical area had the largest drop in unemployment, from 5.5% in August to 4.4% in September.

For Detroit, the increase in unemployment was from 4.1% in August to 4.3% in September.

Statewide, the unemployment rate for September was 4.2%, down from 4.5% in August. The September rate was up from the 3.8 percent rate recorded one year earlier.

A total of 77 of the state’s 83 counties recorded unemployment rate declines during September, DTMB said.