November 2024 Small Business Outlook: Optimism for 2025 Continues to Grow

Summary: Plans for growth continue to move upward.

• 92% of small business owners expect moderate to significant growth in the next 6 months (up ½ a point since last quarter).
• 97% of immigrant-owned small businesses are forecasting growth (up 2 points).
• Almost 97% of veteran-owned small businesses are forecasting growth (up 12 points).

Learn more about this data from OnDeck + Ocrolus Small Business Cash Flow Trend Report for Q3, published on Nov. 26, 2024.

Summary: Small business confidence improves after the election with skyrocketing anticipation of higher revenues and profitability.

• 28% of small business owners say the economy has improved (5 points higher than October) and 28% say the economy has gotten worse (3 points better than October).
• 13% of small business owners believe the economy will worsen (1 point better than October).
• 64% of small businesses plan on increasing employees next year (12 points higher than October) and 3% plan on shrinking their workforce (4 points lower than October).
• 45% of small businesses expect to increase fixed investments in the next year (9 points higher than October).
• 79% of small businesses expect increased revenues in the next 12 months (13 points higher than October) and *69% believe profitability will improve (16 points higher than October).
• 51% of small business owners rank “tax policies” as the most likely to impact their business within a list of anticipated policy priorities of the new Administration.

Learn more about this data from WSJ / Vistage Small Business CEO Confidence Index, published on Nov. 25, 2024. 

Summary: October was a tough sales month for small business.  Capital spending is trending upward and expectations rose for a post-election sales bump.

• 20% of small business owners reported higher sales in the past 3-months (3 points lower than September and lowest reading in 4-years) and the percentage expecting higher sales rose 5 points to reach -4% (highest level this year).
• 35% of small businesses reported job openings they could not fill (up 1 point from September).
• 31% of small business owners raised compensation in October (down 1 point from September and lowest level in 3-years).
• 23% of small business owners ranked inflation as their top concern (unchanged from September and still the top cited problem) and 20% said that labor quality is their top concern (3 points higher than September).
• 21% of small businesses raised their prices in August (1 point lower than September) and 26% are planning on raising prices in the next 3-months (1 point higher than September).
• 54% of small business owners reported capital outlays in the last 6-months (up 3 points from September) and 22% are planning capital purchases in the next 3-months (up 3 points from September).
• -6% of small business owners expect better credit conditions in the next 3-months (2 points better than September).
• 6% of small business owners believe now is a good time to expand (2 points higher than September).
• 64% of small business owners are not interested in a loan (2 points higher than September) and 25% report borrowing on a regular basis (down 1 point from September).
• 3% of small business owners reported that financing was their top problem in October (down 1 point from September).

Learn more about this data from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index, published on Nov. 12, 2024.

Summary: Small business sales bumped up in October.

• Month-over-month sales at small businesses in October rose 3.7% from a flat September and year-over-year sales at small businesses rose 7.1% compared to October 2023.
• Fastest growing retail categories year over year were General Merchandise (11.4% growth), Food & Beverage (8.4% growth), and Furniture (7.8% growth).
• Food Services and Restaurants experienced a 2% increase compared to September and 5.9% increase compared to October 2023. Caveat – average ticket sizes declined 1.7% compared to a year ago.
• Service-based small businesses grew 4% since September and grew 7.4% compared to October 2023.

Learn more about this data from the Fiserv Small Business Index, published on Nov. 2, 2024.